[Home] | [Articles Index]

Five Hopeful Predictions for 2006

by Ted Kuik

'Tis the time of the year when everyone and his brother tries to predict what will happen in the year to come. So in that spirit, I offer the following five optimistic predictions for 2006:

(1) Internet traffic and e-commerce worldwide will continue to grow. Fueled by a combination of new internet users and dial-up users switching to broadband (and therefore making heavier use of the internet), this one seems almost inevitable.

(2) Consumer Robotics will experience good growth. Clever toys like the new Furby and more utilitartian products from IRobot will do well. Sony, Honda, and other companies will expand the capabilities of their higher end robots, and companies most of us have never heard of will bring out interesting products by the end of the year.

(3) Inflation will be contained and very possibly lower than in it was in 2005. Globalization and past Federal Reserve rate hikes should exert a moderating effect on price pressures, and it seems unlikely that energy prices will be as much of a negative factor as in the past year.

(4) The economy in general will do reasonably well -The previously passed tax cuts should continue to exert a favorable influence on investment and productivity, especially if congress can muster the will to make them permanent. Contained inflationary expectations will likely cause the Federal Reserve to ease up on interest rate hikes at some point in the year. With many of the most of the major market indices near or below where they were 5 years ago, we may see a nice upward movement in the stocks.

(5) There will be some surprises (aren't there always?), but they won't all be bad news. Sure, we could get hit by exceptionally severe weather, energy supply disruptions, bird flu, or terrorist activity, but there's also the potential for unexpected positive developments. We could see mild weather for a change, unforeseen declines in energy prices, new breakthroughs in medicine or space exploration. Major terrorist figures could be captured or killed. Some obscure entrepreneur could create a totally new industry. A lot could go right.

Well, those are my predictions - no guarantees. We'll know what really happened around this time next year.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Last Revised December 21, 2005

© Copyright 2005, Ted Kuik/Kuik Computer Services. All rights reserved.